Evolutionary Mechanism and Quantitative Evaluation of Emergency Decision-Making in Graduate Admissions Public Opinion from the Perspective of “Double Combustion”:A Case Study of the 2024“Cat-Abusing Candidate”Incident

Abstract

In the era of intelligent media,public opinion regarding graduate admissions frequently exhibits cross-domain diffusion and non-linear characteristics defined by the conflict between a-bility and morality,rendering traditional linear governance paradigms ineffective.To explore the evolutionary mechanism of public opinion in a multimodal environment an-d quantitatively eval-uate the effectiveness of emergency decision-making in universities,this study integrates "Social Combustion Theory" and“Structuration Theory” to construct a dual-layer analysis framework e-ncompassing mechanism diagnosis and action logic.Taking the 2024 "Cat-Abusing Candidate" in-cident as a case study,empirical measurements were conducted using the Adaptive Cross-Modal Fusion Attention Mechanism (ACM-AM) and the Emergency Decision Quality Evaluation Mo-del (EDQEM).The findings indicate that:(1)Rega-rding the combustion mechanism,the incident  exhibited characteristics of dual combustion fields involving “normative conflict” and “bottom-line anxiety”, where short videos significantly lowered the “ignition temperature” of public opinion with a 68% contribution rate  to negative sentiment.(2)Regarding governance actions,Nanjing University(score:9.23)adopted an "interruption-based decision-making" strategy that achieved high-efficiency instantaneous "extinguishing" by precisely removing the fuel of institutional uncertainty.Conversely, Lanzhou University (score:8.52)employed a "procedural decision-making"strategy that controlled psychological thresholds through a strict procedural closed-loop, effectively avoiding secondary public opinion crises despite slightly lower timeliness.Accordingly,this paper proposes a structured governance pathway incorporating multi-modal threshold early warning and  hierarchical response mechanisms,aiming to provide scientific decision support for universities in coping with complex public opinion scenarios.