Research on the Impact of Aging Rural Population on Agricultural Economy in Heilongjiang Province

Abstract

 This paper focuses on Heilongjiang Province, an important grain production base in China, and empirically examines the impact of rural population aging on agricultural economy and its mechanism of action. Based on municipal-level panel data from 2000 to 2023, the study finds that: (1) Rural population aging significantly inhibits agricultural economic growth, with a 1% increase in the degree of aging leading to an approximate decrease of 0.049% in total agricultural output value. (2) Mechanism tests indicate that agricultural labor supply is the core intermediary channel, and aging restricts agricultural production efficiency and structural upgrading by reducing the effective supply of labor and lowering labor quality. (3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative impact of aging is more significant in major grain-producing areas and agricultural reclamation systems. This study reveals the core constraints faced by agricultural economy under the background of population structure transformation, providing empirical evidence and policy implications for Heilongjiang Province and similar regions to address rural aging, ensure food security, and promote agricultural modernization.