The Additionality Crisis in China's Green Certificate Market and its Response Mechanism

Abstract

As renewable energy develops rapidly, the environmental value of green  certificates face challenges related to "additionality". This study introduces the international debate on additionality crisis of green certificates into the Chinese context, systematically inspecting the structural characteristics of China's green certificate market and the causes of its additionality deficit. It finds that while policy additionality has improved, economic and environmental additionality remains significantly lacking, with the root cause being the economic competitiveness of renewable energy. By drawing on the policy shifts of international carbon credit mechanisms such as VCS and GS, as well as the practical experiences of the European GOs market and the U.S. REC tiered market, this study argues that the solution to the crisis does not lie in strengthening "additionality" but rather in redefining the functional positioning of green certificates. They should establish a quality-tiered system based on spatiotemporal matching and clarify their functional boundaries with carbon credits, transitioning from traditional carbon offset tools to green consumption credentials.